I love these sort of metrics bc it tells me the co. is staying on top of the health of operations & allows them to be nimbler to demand/issues. With this analytical rigor in place Revolve can apply a "read and react" merchandising approach w 1,000 new styles launched per week.
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Metrics also provides the foundation to shift & shape their private label business which ends up being more productive on a units sold per style basis with higher average unit revenue & meaningfully higher gross margins vs. third party. It also keeps avg. order value high at $304
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That high order value is important (a risk factor) bc it makes the unit economics pretty compelling. The payback period on Revolve's CAC is the first order and keeping merchandise fresh to consumers drives LTV/CAC.pic.twitter.com/8LUokw2w8J
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Revolve provides are really nice illustration of this with a 2014 cohort analysis. These unit economics provide the foundation to ramp marketing spend & ensure those dollars are generating a return. Despite significantly ramping marketing CAC was relatively steady from '14 to '16pic.twitter.com/cLboXaIzVJ
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The company went from $7.3m marketing spend to $56m in 2017. Although Revolve is known for their influencer initiatives, 75% of their marketing spend is performance based (retargeting, paid search/listing ads, affiliate marketing, paid social, email) which has driven net sales.pic.twitter.com/jdSCUjqkzl
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Of course, the question is how much performance marketing runway is left. How can they drive efficient growth? They've acknowledged CAC increases & gets less efficient as digital channel spend increases. Interestingly, they say influencer marketing has an opposite effect.
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One thing they're done is deliberately increase marketing spend to higher-margin owned brands w a focus on acquiring "full price" customers who they believe has higher LTV. While CAC increased from $30 to $38, they still generate a profit on 1st order w higher contribution margin
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Going forward, the big question is how will brand/influencer marketing drive growth. Revolve is considered one of the best at influencer marketing and in many ways are the "canary in the social marketing coal mine". If they can't make it work, a lot of DTC folks are in trouble.
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Revolve is also a proxy for Insta's social commerce initiatives. They will be an early adopter to whatever Insta decides to pursue & will have clear, metrics-driven read into how things are progressing. In theory, Insta's commerce success should drive success at Revolve
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Overall, Revolve's playbook of shifting to private label, velocity, and social is a pretty good approach to competing with AMZN & thriving. Having strong analytical rigor to go along w the qualitative elements of fashion makes them as well positioned as you can ask. (end thread)
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First rule of business, never lose money. Second rule of business, never forget the first rule. Third rule of business, never compete with Amazon. Revolve is competing with Amazon. That alone scares me. IMHO, in order for this to work, they will need Zara-esque innovation.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @NonGaap
This is powerful. They might pull it off, but like I said. TOUGH business.pic.twitter.com/fxb3UvaFoy
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
I like their private label strategy and their pricing has held up (so far). They've done a pretty good job developing clothes that's on trend, quickly/heavily promoted by influencers to move inventory, and moving on to the next trend.
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