Thanks again. Agree w MH: WW buys wholesale, sells retail (w a massive asset-liability mismatch). I do not see how they can buy cheaper or sell more dear. Overhead, marketing, sales? maybe. If it was such a great model, they'd be making money AND the guy would not be buying bldgs
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Replying to @BarbarianCap @sandykory
Yikes, did not know that the CEO was personally buying buildings and then leasing them back to the company he's running. Gross. https://www.wsj.com/articles/weworks-ceo-makes-millions-as-landlord-to-wework-11547640000 …
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @BarbarianCap
This conflict of interest strikes me as indefensible tho perhaps there are exculpatory details. Re goog a better Quality Score is a huge advantage...it’s worth exploring if you’re unfamiliar...ties to underrated genius of goog using ctr in AdWords.
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Replying to @sandykory @BarbarianCap
Yeah, but quality score and scale are not really highly correlated! And...[all the points I made before]
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @BarbarianCap
Yes they are strongly. correlated. Amazon and eBay have big cost advantage in ppc. Similar competitive advantage in SEO.
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Replying to @sandykory @BarbarianCap
Yeah, but that's not scale. Suppose I operated the premiere, best experience, bee-keeping e-commerce website. My quality score will be excellent. This has nothing to do with the size of my operation.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @sandykory
And there's no reason an operator like GreenDesk can't crush WeWork on "Brooklyn Coworking". Local operators know local tastes better. Good luck understanding what makes a coworker in Tokyo vs. Raleigh-Durham vs. Buenos Aires tickpic.twitter.com/zdgyrvwUb3
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @sandykory
to me, the red flags are (1) they are not making $ w U/E for college grads at 1.9% after XX yrs in biz/YYY bldgs, (2) the guy is moving up in the seniority claims personally... equivalent of bill gates starting a PC biz... (3) A/L mismatch. All else is noise.
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Replying to @BarbarianCap @sandykory
1. U/E? 2. Seniority as in their debt? Sorry, don't understand. 3. This one I get, haha. Do you know of a reasonable way to "short" private companies? Got one that I know much about...
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @sandykory
(1) pic (2) he's going for the real thing that will be there no matter what, and can reclaim the asset after biz model fail... (3) suppliers/customers; long competitors; False Claims Act... need detailspic.twitter.com/M7mnK13WEF
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1. Duh thanks 2. Yup got it. Can be viewed as downside protection. He'll walk away with something. False Claims Act I thought was an oft invoked class action claim for defrauding the govt, not something nonlawyers can profit off. Will dm for details.
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