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I have zero vc experience and even I know that this makes no sense. It is not reasonable to reject a startup investment in Amazon in 1994 because Walmart may crush them, but it is reasonable to reject an investment in Walmart in 2019 because Amazon may crush them.https://twitter.com/msuster/status/1126693593928757248 …
Why? Because their upside/downside profiles are totally different. Suppose in 2010 there is a 90% chance Uber will be killed by Taxi cartels/regulation. The market is so huge and winner take all that the literally 4500x upside more than compensates for the 10% chance of success
This email is a much more reasonable explanation.https://twitter.com/msuster/status/1126722595573850117?s=19 …
To make things clear, the reason why it's reasonable to not invest in Walmart because of Amazon is that Walmart has very small upside.
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