Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?
    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
Molson_Hart's profile
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
@Molson_Hart

Tweets

Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

CEO at http://amazon.com/viahart . CEO at http://edisonlf.com . I tweet about business, e-commerce, supply chain, health, law, & infrastructure

Austin, TX
Joined July 2015

Tweets

  • © 2020 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Imprint
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list

    Under 100 characters, optional
    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 5 May 2019
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      i was thinking about investing in Bitcoin. Please critique my thought process. 1. Bitcoin is not in my area of competence. I don't know cryptography, but I decided to give it a whirl anyways. 2. The market cap of gold futures is about 70x Bitcoin's market cap.

      3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 5 May 2019
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      3. I figured that roughly 25% of gold is used as a store of Value. And that Bitcoin could probably capture 25% of that market, conservatively. 4. By this logic, Bitcoin has an expected future average price of 70*25%*25% = 4.375x its current price.pic.twitter.com/CAqnosVjAH

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 5 May 2019
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      5. I spent a lot of time trying to understand its mechanics and potential downside threats. There's everything from the technical and non-technical stuff (i.e. fraud or key theft) listed here to government just banning it, preventing convertibility. https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Weaknesses#Attacker_has_a_lot_of_computing_power …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 5 May 2019
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      6. By this logic, I reasoned that Bitcoin had a 50% chance of achieving its future expected price target and a 50% chance of going to zero. Again, conservatively. 7. Since there is a good chance I am underestimating the chance of it going to zero, despite its survival for 10 yrs

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 5 May 2019
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      I changed my probabilities to 25% chance of achieving future expected price and 75% chance of complete loss/implosion of value. 8. According to the Kelly Criterion (highly recommended!), I should bet .25/1-.75/3.375 = .027777 = 2.78% of my bank roll.pic.twitter.com/xHS178RmMu

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Show this thread
    6. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 5 May 2019
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      3.375 is derived from the 4.375 I mentioned earlier, less 1, which is what I have to bet in order to get my 4.375. 9. However, if you look at the expected value of the bet, it sucks. .25*3.375+.75*-1 = .09375

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 5 May 2019
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      10. Suppose it will take 10 years for Bitcoin's price to converge to its future expected price. Now calculate your IRR: .09375 = 1(1+r)^10-1 Solve for r. r = .009 That's a terrible IRR.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Show this thread
      Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 5 May 2019
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      11. Okay, I'm not considering the possibility of another bull run up like what happened in 2017 and I may be underestimating the possibility of Bitcoin taking a bigger chunk of the market, but given the risks I feel okay with these choices. Bitcoin is a pass.pic.twitter.com/lgfZXRpEq8

      3:26 PM - 5 May 2019
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. This Tweet is unavailable.
        2. This Tweet is unavailable.
        3. 6 more replies

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2020 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Imprint
        • Cookies
        • Ads info