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Molson_Hart's profile
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
@Molson_Hart

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Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

CEO at http://amazon.com/viahart . CEO at http://edisonlf.com . I tweet about business, e-commerce, supply chain, health, law, & infrastructure

Austin, TX
Joined July 2015

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    1. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson 15 Apr 2019
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      Won't ANY crazy tech execs bet me?! "point at which AI-assisted machines surpass human intelligence … 73% of tech execs saying this moment will arrive within 10 years, & nearly half of tech execs believe this will occur within 5 years" (HT @XiXiDu)https://www.edelman.com/research/2019-artificial-intelligence-survey?fbclid=IwAR3YWYPK-jzQy--mlikxIOjxgdGtRJx9Hp5JsaZA7xY57E13nsytAAgruMM …

      12 replies 12 retweets 41 likes
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    2. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson 15 Apr 2019
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      I'll happily consider $10K at 1-1 odds.

      7 replies 1 retweet 34 likes
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    3. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 15 Apr 2019
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      Replying to @robinhanson

      In order to take this bet, doesn't it need to be better defined? Surpass human intelligence in what? And then, of course, human intelligence in almost everything is on a bell curve, so do you mean the average participant? If it were chess, the average tournament goer?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson 15 Apr 2019
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      This is the sort of thing to negotiate with someone who says they are interested in betting, not with a random observer.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 15 Apr 2019
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      Replying to @robinhanson

      You're assuming that I'm not interesting in betting, when I am. Some problems with your bet: - Long time horizon. - Heavy cost of carrying the bet. Both parties need to remember. - Small money. If I were right, I could just make an angel investment that'd pay me better

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson 15 Apr 2019
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      If you want to say you are interested, say so directly. Five years is too long a horizon? Too long to remember? If 73% of tech execs believe this, how are you going to find a neglected investment here?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 15 Apr 2019
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      Replying to @robinhanson

      I am interested. With that said, it's hard to be interested in taking action on something that is so poorly defined. It's not an actionnable bet at this time. 5 years? Don't know. Too long 2 remember? Yes. Nearly 100% of tech execs full of shit. Investment is about dealflow.

      12:45 PM - 15 Apr 2019
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      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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