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In order to take this bet, doesn't it need to be better defined? Surpass human intelligence in what? And then, of course, human intelligence in almost everything is on a bell curve, so do you mean the average participant? If it were chess, the average tournament goer?
This is the sort of thing to negotiate with someone who says they are interested in betting, not with a random observer.
You're assuming that I'm not interesting in betting, when I am. Some problems with your bet: - Long time horizon. - Heavy cost of carrying the bet. Both parties need to remember. - Small money. If I were right, I could just make an angel investment that'd pay me better
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