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Molson_Hart's profile
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
@Molson_Hart

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Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

CEO at http://amazon.com/viahart . CEO at http://edisonlf.com . I tweet about business, e-commerce, supply chain, health, law, & infrastructure

Austin, TX
Joined July 2015

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    1. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 26 Mar 2019
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      Some analysis of the luxury apartment market in Dallas. 1. Giant luxury apartment building opened in October 2018. 2. It has 15 non-parking floors. Maybe 15-20 apartments per floor. 3. 137 vacancies listed on their website.pic.twitter.com/NCfekYWZYi

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    2. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 26 Mar 2019
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      So I estimate it's 45-60% vacant.

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    3. Barbarian Capital‏ @BarbarianCap 26 Mar 2019
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      if you live nearby, check it a couple of nights during the week to see whether this is roughly right (based on % dark) You never know with RE ppl, could be advertising higher availability to get people to inquire

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    4. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 26 Mar 2019
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      Replying to @BarbarianCap

      I have. Based on that metric there are even more vacancies. Fwiw, the buildings in the area collude to keep prices high. I don't see how the developers/bank don't get boned on this one.

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    6. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 26 Mar 2019
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      Replying to @retail_risk @BarbarianCap

      Don't know. "The Ardan is a 380-unit, 23-story apartment tower built by Forest City Realty Trust and Cityplace Co." Forest City owned by Brookfield.

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    7. Alex Vespoli‏ @avespoli 26 Mar 2019
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @retail_risk @BarbarianCap

      (1/3) 60% vacant would be 40% occupied. 40% of 380 units is 152. 152 units leased in 6 months (Oct-March) would be 25 units per month. Realistically 2 months of preleasing before that for 152/8 months so 19 per month. That’s a solid, if unremarkable, leaseup pace (esp. in winter)

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    8. Alex Vespoli‏ @avespoli 26 Mar 2019
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      Replying to @avespoli @retail_risk @BarbarianCap

      (2/3) Would have to dig into what concessions they’re offering to figure out if they’ll really hit their proforma rents. If more than one month free, could be tough (given need to increase rent substantially as original leases roll)

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    9. Alex Vespoli‏ @avespoli 26 Mar 2019
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      Replying to @avespoli @retail_risk @BarbarianCap

      (3/3) Hard to know how dev and lender will fare without digging into their basis and I don’t know Texas well enough to venture a guess there. But the leaseup pace in and of itself doesn’t seem like a red flag. Lender is Pacific Life, for what it’s worth.

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      Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 26 Mar 2019
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      Replying to @avespoli @retail_risk @BarbarianCap

      I believe they are offering 2 months free although at an extravagant rent. Notwithstanding what you wrote, what worries me is that their occupancy by counting lit apartments is lower than that and it looks like we're going into a recession. I might walk by and take a night photo

      9:03 PM - 26 Mar 2019
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        1. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 26 Mar 2019
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          Replying to @Molson_Hart @avespoli and

          Kinda hard to say...time will tellpic.twitter.com/Ohb4oYDV1P

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