Free transit in Tallinn caused transit mode share to rise 8 percentage points, 3 from cars and 5 from walking https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11116-016-9695-5 … via @caosplanejado
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So free transit would change the he 2 or more people numbers
As I said earlier, the most important thing is speed (and then convenience). It would not have a meaningful effect on transit usage in most cities, except perhaps on the homeless.