The Thucydides Trap: When one great power threatens to displace another, war is almost always the result. Basically this is what we have going on between China and the United States.
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I was thinking more along military lines - China flexing in the Spratleys and towards Taiwan is like the US operating in the Caribbean. We can put carrier battle groups on their doorstep, and they have no corresponding capability.
Yeah, they're still quite behind (for example their only air craft carrier was purchased from Ukraine), but every year they close the gap.