The Thucydides Trap: When one great power threatens to displace another, war is almost always the result. Basically this is what we have going on between China and the United States.
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China is still incredibly limited in its ability to project power in a traditional sense. Maybe they can fight their battles on the internet however. At some point reality and demographics are going to bite their economy in the ass.
Yeah...we have a huge "soft power" advantage. That said, there are plenty of things that China does better than the states and many of those things are quite important.
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Our economies are wound right together and very co-dependant. I think it is very much an open question who would come off worse in a bad, protracted trade war. Things go sideways fast in China when the economy falls apart, historically.
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Agreed. I think the U.S. is much more robust politically. In the USA the chaos is visible - it can be vented. In China it happens behind the scenes until it builds up to an explosion.
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I was thinking more along military lines - China flexing in the Spratleys and towards Taiwan is like the US operating in the Caribbean. We can put carrier battle groups on their doorstep, and they have no corresponding capability.
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Yeah, they're still quite behind (for example their only air craft carrier was purchased from Ukraine), but every year they close the gap.
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