Wild swings in a dynamic prediction imply an overestimation of precision at each prediction point.
The more a series swings wildly, the closer the predictive model should be to max entropy
See work by @nntaleb on election forecasting.https://twitter.com/EdAsante77/status/1035872371369017344 …
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And ignore the shit out of
@FiveThirtyEight@NateSilver538 entertainment-agenda “statistics”1 reply 1 retweet 3 likesShow this thread
Falsified by Trump
6:01 AM - 1 Sep 2018
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