He's not wrong on thishttps://twitter.com/fxmacro/status/1008855590947446784 …
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Replying to @BaldingsWorld
Time is on the US side. As orders get switched to domestic producers to avoid uncertainty, US economy grows stronger. I tried to order stainless Chinese bolts from UK supplier to ship to USA... Order cancelled. Had to buy from US. Millions of times a day now.
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Replying to @so_many_ryans @BaldingsWorld
In a lot of these industries, there is no domestic supplier. The orders are going to SEA or Mexico. In many of these industries, it's not a function of time. Certain products just will not be made here at American labor prices.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @BaldingsWorld
Tata and cmc others scrambling to bring up production at steel plants. 309/ton premium for domestic production. Huge incentive
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Replying to @so_many_ryans @BaldingsWorld
As you know, steel is not clothes, or toys, or whatever. That said, the tariffs need to be done in such a way that new plants are built. Kind of like the foreign orders are cancelled because of uncertainty, so will the new steel plants in the United States.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @BaldingsWorld
Basically, what I'm trying to say is that you cannot make the steel China was supplying on Sundays or at night. So, to your point, the tariffs need to be established as long-term, in a credible way.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @BaldingsWorld
Definitely. Probably a few months off though. Trump is creating rules for access to US markets and a a stark alternative of limited access. Most trading partners remain in denial of new reality and think non trade gestures will restore market access. Not anymore. No chance.
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If there is one thing that Trump understands, it is leverage in a negotiation. USA's got it, with pretty much everyone. Out of curiosity, yet another Ryan, what do you do man?
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