We're at peak economic cycle and brick and mortar is struggling to fill space. It's really unclear what happens next. Maybe lots of vacant big box, maybe rents come down enough for people to think of new ways to use the space.
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In 2018, commercial real estate is pure asymmetric downside. Besides grocery, luxury, car, convenience, and some home improvement, retail is totally fucked.
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As we shift from b & m to ecommerce as the distribution channel the square footage per good sold goes way down as you can store these goods much more efficiently in a tiered multilevel warehouse.
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Similarly the labor per good sold goes way down as you transition from b&m to ecommerce. Even though the internet has been going strong for almost 25 years, this simple change of buying online still has yet to show its full ramifications.
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As Bill Gates says, everyone overestimates the effects of technology in the short run but underestimates it in the long run. That said, the next recession (if it ever comes) should accelerate the process, whatever it is.
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