What's a more LONG-TERM effective incentive: Do X and I will give you Y dollars? Do X. After X is completed, Y dollars are awarded, as a surprise.
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Do you really think the surprising has a lasting effect? Internally, what would they think in order for it to positively affect future work: "At [possibly seemingly random intervals] times, I am rewarded for work that my boss thinks is good."
I guess it depends on the maturity and position in the hierarchy of the employee (low vs high wage). Not only will they expect that surprise bonus, but they may even react negatively next time they do not receive it, which is tricky.
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I am usually strongly tempted to surprise people with bonuses, but generally I feel like giving the employees the road-map to the bonus (which must be well-designed to avoid incentivizing the wrong thing) is most effective. Can't win a game of chess without knowing the rules.
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Compensation is the boat’s rudder. Have to have clear metrics imo. That said, I think finding ways to celebrate successes/small victories as they occur is important. It’s not a surprise bonus. It’s a bonus for achieving something great or a morale booster when things aren’t hop’n
End of conversation
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