Adam Ozimek

@ModeledBehavior

Chief Economist at . Opinions my own.

Lancaster, PA
Joined June 2010
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Oct 29

    ***New research alert*** I have a new Upwork study today that I think is pretty important. Are people planning on moving because of remote work? Yes. Lots of them. Report is here, a quick thread below.

    24 replies 141 retweets 341 likes
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  2. Retweeted
    18 hours ago

    If you said “the sky is blue” on Twitter, somebody would quote tweet it and say “This idiot has never heard of night time.”

    111 replies 631 retweets 9,671 likes
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  3. 3 hours ago

    Voter quality and public opinion affects institution quality with a long lag. So various “the system works” observations should *not* be a big comfort to you.

    1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes
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  4. Retweeted
    4 hours ago

    NY did not reach herd immunity

    14 replies 20 retweets 125 likes
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  5. Retweeted
    3 hours ago
    Replying to

    1. The signature of every absentee vote was already checked—twice. 2. Once a secret ballot is counted, it is impossible to match the ballot to the envelope in which it was sent. Read :
    4 replies 2 retweets 20 likes
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  6. Retweeted
    5 hours ago

    Bernie Sanders, so disloyal to Bernie Sanders

    There is a lot going on here
    43 replies 54 retweets 922 likes
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  7. Retweeted
    6 hours ago

    During and following the 2007 recession, every month I posted a graph showing the percent jobs lost during the recession compared to previous post-WWII recessions. Some people started calling this the "scariest jobs chart ever". Here it is through November 2020.

    32 replies 276 retweets 715 likes
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  8. Retweeted
    7 hours ago

    Lots of smart people making hazy suppositions about what will create a “false sense of security” and what will create “confidence” in treatments with very little clear evidence. Why not try accurate information?

    26 replies 22 retweets 477 likes
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  9. Retweeted
    7 hours ago

    Something we keep seeing in the pandemic is that a lot of public health seems to involve people with genuine expertise in biology and medicine deciding they should moonlight as amateur social psychologists and I don’t care for it.

    Alex is getting mad, rightly so: “I am getting very angry at people like Anthony Fauci who say that FDA delay is necessary or useful to alleviate vaccine hesitancy.”
    54 replies 96 retweets 791 likes
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  10. 8 hours ago

    Alex is getting mad, rightly so: “I am getting very angry at people like Anthony Fauci who say that FDA delay is necessary or useful to alleviate vaccine hesitancy.”

    42 replies 60 retweets 309 likes
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  11. 8 hours ago

    This is why people don’t believe new evidence. Existing “experts” are cranks who nobody will listen to even if they’ve got better new evidence, they clearly can’t tell good evidence from bad

    3 likes
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  12. 8 hours ago

    UFO guy says that transistors came from UFOs. Can you imagine a maniac like Shockley keeping that secret his whole life? Pure ignorance

    2 replies 10 likes
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  13. 8 hours ago

    One of the big problems with existing attempts to quantify the effects of PPP is nobody is getting the universe right. You have to include farms, non-employers, NAICS 72, and railroads. Yes, railroads. Nobody is doing this in their estimates!

    Short working paper w/ Robert Kurtzman, Byron Lutz, . Folks are working hard to analyze the business-focused policies implemented this year. This means making assumptions about how big the business universe targeted by a program actually is.
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    2 replies 7 likes
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  14. Retweeted
    8 hours ago

    Re-upping this old blog about John Taylor's doublethink during the Obama administration.

    1 reply 2 retweets 5 likes
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  15. Retweeted
    9 hours ago

    Pennsylvania state government with all its no-bid IT contracts isnt reaching its frustrated unemployed so a 24 year old built a free browser extension

    Jobless workers say they dial the unemployment office hundreds of times per day to get past the busy signal. A 24 y/o from Allentown made a browser extension that helps workers reach unemployment officials — and get their benefits — faster
    1 reply 10 retweets 37 likes
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  16. 9 hours ago

    Let me know if a thread on the evidence and why it’s compelling and what skeptics are failing at is needed for the future. I assume everyone is up to speed but maybe not

    11 replies 1 retweet 29 likes
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  17. 9 hours ago

    Also I don’t know if this needs to be said in 2020 but just in case, I’m not a “believer minded” person. I subscribed to skeptic magazine in high school and college, my hero was Michael Shermer, I loved Hitchens. Not a crank eager to believe these things, not a sci fi guy.

    2 replies 16 likes
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  18. 10 hours ago

    That’s the thread

    2 replies 10 likes
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  19. 10 hours ago

    So I started saying natural phenomenon was most parsimonious for the combined micro and macro data. I will close by saying aliens who are concerned we’re going to destroy ourselves and want to help without setting off arms race is most micro parsimonious.... Also, I’m not crazy

    2 replies 19 likes
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  20. 10 hours ago

    And by the way, a theme in the new UFO research is that they are very very interested in defense stuff, nukes, etc. If you were trying to gauge, and perhaps with long-standing concerns, monitor our capacity to self-destruct in a global war, isn’t that a thing to watch?

    3 replies 17 likes
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  21. 10 hours ago

    So when you ask, why would they be coyly revealing themselves over generations, allowing the idea of not being alone to become part of our mythos and then attempt to very gradually up our beliefs that they are real... that doesn’t seem strange but maybe strategic utilitarian

    1 reply 15 likes
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