Newt at 24% to win nomination, 9.6% to win election-> P(win|nom)=40% Romney 67% nominee, 30% election win-> P(win|nom)=45%.
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Newt at 24% to win nomination, 9.6% to win election-> P(win|nom)=40% Romney 67% nominee, 30% election win-> P(win|nom)=45%.
