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ModeledBehavior's profile
Adam Ozimek
Adam Ozimek
Adam Ozimek
@ModeledBehavior

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Adam Ozimek

@ModeledBehavior

Chief Economist at @Upwork. Opinions my own.

Lancaster, PA
Joined June 2010

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    1. Adam Ozimek‏ @ModeledBehavior 5 Jun 2020

      Jobs report thread, I think I have some answers in here:

      3 replies 58 retweets 161 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Adam Ozimek‏ @ModeledBehavior 5 Jun 2020

      Paryolls surprised to the upside, with 2.5m jobs gained compared to expected 7.45m loss. The pandemic economy has hit a bottom and is beginning to bounce, but even record breaking job growth does not tell us that the economy is going to emerge from this quickly or unscathed.

      1 reply 11 retweets 67 likes
      Show this thread
      Adam Ozimek‏ @ModeledBehavior 5 Jun 2020

      The most important distinction in the economy today is between temporary and permanent job loss. There are millions of jobs right now that are on temporary hold, with the workers laid off on the understanding that when the economy opens back up they will come back to work.

      5:59 AM - 5 Jun 2020
      • 11 Retweets
      • 60 Likes
      • Paul Gambles JW "Good news is good, bad news is bad" Oliver Nancy C Robertson Miss Norma Jeane 🗽🩸 & 🦷 Martin Wiegand Irfan 🇺🇲 𝗦𝗜𝗠O𝗡 O'𝗥𝗘𝗚𝗔𝗡 🦊 James Bailey Arngrim
      3 replies 11 retweets 60 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Adam Ozimek‏ @ModeledBehavior 5 Jun 2020

          This type of temporary unemployment has declined this month as states and cities have begun reopening. That is one factor that helps explain positive job growth.

          1 reply 6 retweets 43 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Adam Ozimek‏ @ModeledBehavior 5 Jun 2020

          Another factor is that businesses that normally employee 50 million or more workers have been receiving Paycheck Protection Program funds that incentivize rehiring. While the program is imperfect, it is channeling hundreds of billions into payrolls.

          4 replies 14 retweets 74 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Adam Ozimek‏ @ModeledBehavior 5 Jun 2020

          I think this is a key point: With upwards of 50 million workers potentially affected, even a 10% increase in payrolls at PPP businesses would boost aggregate job growth by 5 million and could easy swamp underlying job loss elsewhere.

          2 replies 17 retweets 91 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Adam Ozimek‏ @ModeledBehavior 5 Jun 2020

          While temporary layoffs returning to work and PPP rehiring are both good news for the workers, it is important to not lose sight of the underlying damage being done to the economy. Businesses are reopening, but for many it is already too late.

          3 replies 23 retweets 64 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Adam Ozimek‏ @ModeledBehavior 5 Jun 2020

          Census survey data shows that many businesses are out of cash or very low, and revenues remain far below normal. This is causing tremendous strain and a wave of business failures, a fact we should not let the attention grabbing payroll numbers distract us from.

          1 reply 14 retweets 63 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Adam Ozimek‏ @ModeledBehavior 5 Jun 2020

          Business failures are only measured by the government with a major lag, meaning we won’t be able to really see this damage in the data until towards the end of the year. However, there is some sign of permanent damage in the jobs report itself.

          2 replies 8 retweets 50 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Adam Ozimek‏ @ModeledBehavior 5 Jun 2020

          IMPORTANT: The number of workers who are unemployed due to permanent job loss rose 255k this month, bringing the total to 1m above where it was at the beginning of the year. A million jobs permanently lost is already a significant amount, and this number continues to climb.

          4 replies 53 retweets 124 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Adam Ozimek‏ @ModeledBehavior 5 Jun 2020

          Overall, when we are this far from normal, payrolls heading in the right direction is far from mission accomplished. A better than expected jobs report for May would is some good news, but right now we need more than some good news, we need a lot of it.

          4 replies 12 retweets 66 likes
          Show this thread
        10. End of conversation
        1. 4tian‏ @4tian 5 Jun 2020
          Replying to @ModeledBehavior

          Same as last time temp/perm distinction. It always is

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. J. Slaten‏ @jslaten71 5 Jun 2020
          Replying to @ModeledBehavior

          The most important FACT - America is opening back up and your word play ain't going to change that. FACT - permanent job loss is only permanent if those ppl NEVER go back to work. Yes some businesses will fail but other will open and it will all be temporary job loss!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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