Your prior probability that my next tweet would be this exact sentence was probably somewhere around 10^-30.
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Replying to @ModelOfTheory
Each letter in a typical English sentence has around 1 bit of information. 2^140 is around 10^42. I’m not sure how much information can be gained from knowing who’s the tweeter.
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Replying to @ModelOfTheory @noop_noob
The space of potential tweets over which the prior is distributed should be the reference class, not the actual length.
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Replying to @davidmanheim @noop_noob
Short tweets are more likely than long tweets. You can tell because there are many more possible short tweets than possible long tweets, but among actual tweets, short tweets are still common.
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Replying to @ModelOfTheory @davidmanheim
I think you got something the wrong way around.
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Oops, yes. Many more possible long tweets than possible short tweets.
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