Your prior probability that my next tweet would be this exact sentence was probably somewhere around 10^-30.
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Too low. Tweets about their own probability merit at least 10^-10; conditional on that subject, the particular tweet is at least 10^-10.
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I'd guess there are more than 10^10 ways to write a tweet about its own probability.
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But what sane prior will put a lot of mass on "The probability of this tweet is [HIGH KOLMOGOROV COMPLEXITY REAL IN (0,1)]."?
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Oh, that also gives you more than 10^10 possibilities, but it isn't what I had in mind. I don't think varying the real parameters accounts for the majority of the entropy of tweets that are about their own probability.
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Really? Think about 10^5 syntax trees (or sequences of trees) and 10^5 different realizations of each.
End of conversation
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