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MindsFiction's profile
Justin
Justin
Justin
@MindsFiction

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Justin

@MindsFiction

Joined September 2014

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    1. Max Osbon‏ @MaxOsbon Apr 20

      Risk is often expressed as a number. It may be labeled standard deviation or volatility. Either way, it essentially measures how widely the return of an investment (or portfolio) is expected to vary from “normal."

      2 replies 3 retweets 13 likes
    2. Joe Norman‏ @normonics Apr 20
      Replying to @MaxOsbon @EdLatimore

      No, Ed, this is wrong. Read @nntaleb

      4 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
      Justin‏ @MindsFiction Apr 20
      Replying to @normonics @MaxOsbon and

      Ludic fallacy: Calculating risk in the real world like its a simple card game in a casino. Why the banks blew up in 07/08. Why fund manangers blow up all the time. Risk in complex environments is unknowable.

      10:34 AM - 20 Apr 2018
      • 2 Likes
      • mc@spacer: ~$ Mimetïc Value
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Max Osbon‏ @MaxOsbon Apr 20
          Replying to @MindsFiction @normonics and

          Volatility calculations are only one part of the risk assessment process. Being overly reliant on volatility measures creates massive blind spots. Works until it doesn’t.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Justin‏ @MindsFiction Apr 20
          Replying to @MaxOsbon @normonics and

          You can't calculate the one risk that matters, risk of blowup. But you can somewhat mitigate this risk by knowing you can't calculate it. What you can't know matters more than what you think you know. (Astrology also works until it doesn't)

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. End of conversation

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