Michael Knights

Mackenzie effectively put across the logic of deterrent strikes - you hit us, we hit you. He knows we did the minimum and maybe a little more. But the lack of secondary explosions of a massive and visible nature suggests emptied sites. Again, a very 90s phenomenon.

For anyone losing their minds about us hitting "Karbala airport", we hit one building near a construction site of a long-planned airport. Looks like KH were building a little hidey-hole there and we flattened it. But, it'll take em 5 mins to find another one.

Remember, KH and other Iran-backed militias love building stuff - they spend a little money with their construction company friends, prob get some free land from Iraqi gov, end up with a net gain. The lesson: don't hit empty buildings. They gain: we lose.

There's no doubt that plinking all these sites on Dec 29, March 11, March13, has some cumulative impact. But the only way to deter these groups is to demonstrate the threat to kill their leaders. And the only way 2 kill their leaders is to strike when you acquire them, right away

The AUMF issue makes US nervous about delaying retaliation, de-inking the "defensive strike". Congress and USG need to make ground rules to give commanders the flex to "bank" the deterrent response, then hit the target that will actually deter & thus protect our troops. C'mon!

Regarding collateral damage, this is something we need to be very careful on. Mackenizie makes the valid point: "ISF - don't go near KH". But watch for KH trying to lure us into killing ISF and civs. Esp in time-sensitive strikes.

I favor a response ratio system because it allows effective deterrence .What we saw last night was ineffective deterrence masquerading as effective. This is not the military's fault: it is this timing issue of having to strike right after Iran strikes, giving IRGC the initiative.

Last night's strike showed us being very very predictable. You don't get at the targets that really deter by being predictable. Or by hitting back in a 24-48hr window during which every high value target is well hidden and cloaked in civilians. This is deterrence 101.

Two Americans and one Brit died, and IRGC is laughing today. KH is laughing too, if a little sorely. They're saying: "that was cheap, let's go again, it'll be easy, we can rocket them and keep our leaders hidden for a few days".

If we are going to pay for doing a strike in Iraq, make it worth it -- hit at a time and place of our choosing, and kill some senior militia and related leaders. Think about what really deters militia leaders. Iraqis will understand IF the strike is worthwhile. Hit leaders.

I'm betting these rocket and missile targets were largely stale: awesome targets many months back when they were undoubtedly first considered, but by now looking a bit dog-eared and probably emptied. We are better than this - the concept for this was shabby and half-assed.

I love the way these Advanced Conventional Weapons are so advanced they don't seem to blow up when you hit them with a bomb. #emptybuildingsmakenosecondaries

As soon as I hear the word "degrade" - that useless, meaningless word we heard every time we bombed something back when - I can tell nothing good happened. IRGC doesn't degrade stuff: it kills the target's close contemporary, then threatens to kill the target next.