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MichaelWorobey's profile
Michael Worobey
Michael Worobey
Michael Worobey
@MichaelWorobey

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Michael Worobey

@MichaelWorobey

Viruses. Pandemics. Professor and Head of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of Arizona. Views are my own.

Joined February 2014

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    1. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

      Google Translate: "Past history: Denial of special medical history Physical examination: 51 buccal leaning, 11 erupting, 6 erupting deep pits and fissures Auxiliary inspection results: Diagnosis: 1. Retention of primary teeth 8/

      1 reply 1 retweet 12 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

      "Treatment recommendations: 51 removal is recommended, 6 lines of intra-socket closure surgery are recommended Treatment: 6 lines of pit and fissure sealing, 51 removal under local anesthesia, regular doctor's order, follow-up if unwell. 9/

      1 reply 1 retweet 13 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

      "1. Obucaine Hydrochloride Gel 30mg: 10ml/bottle * 1 bottle for external use Usage: 30mg for external use, temporary medical advice Doctor: Tian Wei (Phone number also provided)." 10/

      1 reply 1 retweet 13 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

      I wrote the following explanation of how I believed this dental problem may have led to an erroneous Dec 8 onset date. 11/pic.twitter.com/QRtNWmIqLN

      1 reply 1 retweet 15 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

      I included in the timeline figure the following: " Dec 8 - Reported symptom onset of 41-YO man from Jiangxia District (S2, S3) (see Dec 16, below). Apparently due to a dental problem involving baby teeth retained into adulthood, with fever Dec 8-9 (S4)" 10/

      1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

      And I asserted in the paper the following: 12/pic.twitter.com/b9yOGqfWiB

      1 reply 1 retweet 13 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

      Michael Worobey Retweeted Brian Reed

      Liang suggests in the SCMP article that the dental issues noted in the patient chart were not those of Mr Chen, but a family member. And @Drinkwater5Reed has made what is, I think, a very strong argument that the dental record was from a child... 13/https://twitter.com/Drinkwater5Reed/status/1469937908148838402 …

      Michael Worobey added,

      Brian Reed @Drinkwater5Reed
      @carlzimmer @benjmueller @ChuBailiang @betswrites @laura_ungar @danengber @Lindadalew @evadou @zeynep
      Show this thread
      1 reply 4 retweets 24 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

      ...because it mentions "erupting" teeth. I had imagined that the translation here meant infected, but it now seems quite clear to me that "erupting" refers to adult teeth emerging, which aside from wisdom teeth (they're not) indicates this is a child. 14/

      1 reply 2 retweets 22 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

      Michael Worobey Retweeted Francisco de Asis

      Note that both @Drinkwater5Reed and @franciscodeasis have earlier argued that Mr Chen *did* get ill with COVID on Dec 16, not Dec 8. 15/ https://twitter.com/Drinkwater5Reed/status/1428772298358730752 …https://twitter.com/franciscodeasis/status/1397227238764990469 …

      Michael Worobey added,

      Francisco de Asis @franciscodeasis
      Chen XX, Wuchang accountant and nephew of a doctor, 41 yrs old male (41M1), is not 1st known onset date on 08-Dec-19 as China-WHO report states (annex p. 117). His onset date was 16-Dec-19 according to 2 Wuhan Central Hospital doctors (Prof. Zhao Su & less-known hero Dr. Ai Fen) pic.twitter.com/7KhzlExUuz
      Show this thread
      1 reply 1 retweet 15 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

      Indeed, @Drinkwater5Reed didn't leave room for doubt: 16/pic.twitter.com/72RfaEAV0X

      2 replies 1 retweet 17 likes
      Show this thread
      Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

      I think the jury is still out. But I think the idea that the Dec 8 date came from Mr Chen having a dental problem is very likely incorrect, and I will be in touch with Science to correct the record. 17/

      2:30 PM - 12 Dec 2021
      • 4 Retweets
      • 52 Likes
      • Alf Eaton Nicolas Fernandez Sam Husseini Fabiano M S Science Nerd Y. P. Bassaces the sailing science shill ⛵️ Tommy Cleary
      9 replies 4 retweets 52 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

          There are lots of remaining questions. Why did a journal article and multiple doctors and hospitals report Chen's COVID onset date as Dec 16 if it was actually Dec 8? If the dental record is from a child, and the rest from Mr Chen, why are they in the same patient handbook? 18/

          4 replies 1 retweet 26 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

          Are the medical records from Dec 9 and 11 Mr Chen's? As noted in my paper: *** December: a medical record from 9 December, shown in reference S4, states that the patient “has had a fever for one day” and prescribes two antibiotics, cefmetazole, and piperacillin sodium. *** 19/

          1 reply 1 retweet 19 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

          If so, were these antibiotics for a respiratory infection? And why does Liang say "he also started experiencing cold-like symptoms such as headaches and dizziness on December 8", but not mention a fever or antibiotic treatment? 20/

          1 reply 1 retweet 17 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

          Why does Chen say that his fever "began" on Dec 16, if this Dec 8/9 fever was his and due to COVID? And what about the time between onset and ICU admission, which is *very long* 22 days if Chen became ill with COVID on Dec 8 (From Ren et al, cited in my support materials): /21pic.twitter.com/EwtHxHihwO

          1 reply 1 retweet 22 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

          Note that the 4 other patients in the study had onset-to-ICU of 7 or 8 days. Similarly, 22 days from onset to positive sample is quite long, for Chen. Not impossible, but long. /22

          1 reply 1 retweet 17 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

          But the key thing - media coverage focusing on Mr Chen notwithstanding - is that WE SHOULD NOT CONFUSE THE EARLIEST KNOWN CASES WITH THE VERY FIRST CASES. Before discussing the Dec 8 or 16 onset of Mr Chen, and the Dec 10 onset of Ms Wei, a Huanan vendor... /23

          2 replies 2 retweets 33 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

          ...I wrote this: "Additionally, the earliest known cases should not necessarily be expected to be the first infected or linked to Huanan Market: They probably postdated the outbreak’s index case by a considerable period (10)..." 24/

          2 replies 1 retweet 20 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

          Even if Mr Chen got sick on Dec 8, two days before Ms Wei, there's almost no chance that either is the primary case of the pandemic. Ref 10, above, is a paper I co-authored with @jepekar and Joel Wertheim: 25/https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abf8003 …

          1 reply 3 retweets 26 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

          We showed that the first human case in Wuhan likely occurred around mid-Nov. Crucially - and this has been missed or ignored by Liang Wannian and many strong believers in a lab origin of the pandemic - our median simulation showed just *nine* infections by Dec 1. Nine! 26/

          3 replies 4 retweets 34 likes
          Show this thread
        11. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

          So this idea in vogue with lab origin aficionados that the Chinese authorities are hiding droves of cases before December is just nonsense. And whether Ms Wei was the 1st or 2nd known patient... 27/

          6 replies 3 retweets 30 likes
          Show this thread
        12. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

          ...what is remarkable is the evidence of cases so early among vendors in a soccer field-sized live wildlife market building. There were perhaps a few hundred such individuals, versus 11 million inhabitants in Wuhan. 28/

          3 replies 6 retweets 28 likes
          Show this thread
        13. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

          The possibility that one of the 11 million or so people who did not work at the market may (or may not) have edged out a market worker by 2 days in symptom onset is not surprising if the outbreak started at the market. As I noted in the paper. 29/

          1 reply 3 retweets 19 likes
          Show this thread
        14. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

          What *would* be astounding is finding so many early cases linked to this market if the virus had moved from the community to the market rather than vice versa. 30/

          5 replies 7 retweets 32 likes
          Show this thread
        15. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

          And you can't explain away this pattern by arguing that so many Huanan-linked cases were discovered because that's just where people were looking. That is not true. And that was the main point of the paper. 31/

          1 reply 2 retweets 26 likes
          Show this thread
        16. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

          The other key point, which too has upset Liang Wannian because it is true, is that early cases *unlinked* to the market tended to live around and near to the market. That points very strongly toward a market origin and community spread beginning around the market. 32/

          2 replies 4 retweets 38 likes
          Show this thread
        17. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

          For Liang to dismiss that point simply shows that he doesn't understand it. And, in case it is not obvious, I made that argument with Liang's *own* data from the WHO-China report, which I understand must be especially aggravating. 33/

          1 reply 3 retweets 29 likes
          Show this thread
        18. Michael Worobey‏ @MichaelWorobey 12 Dec 2021

          What is bemusing is the idea that Chinese authorities hid a bunch of earlier cases so that they could...publish a report that contains strong evidence implicating a live-wildlife market origin of SARS-CoV-2! 34/

          18 replies 5 retweets 42 likes
          Show this thread
        19. End of conversation

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