Pakistan's military leadership is going full throttle to sideline Imran Khan and his party, I argue this week in . National elections offer the best shot at an off ramp-but they won't end the crisis, whether or not they happen on time.
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Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
South Asia Institute Director . Writer of 's weekly South Asia Brief. Tweeting in a personal capacity.
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In a busy week for Indian diplomacy, Prime Minister Modi's visit to Papua New Guinea-the first by an Indian PM-may have flown under the radar for some.
This week's column explains the trip's importance for India's foreign policy interests.
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US officials have said they don’t want to be in the position of having to decide if US policy should change toward Bangladesh if elections there aren’t free and fair.
This is an indication of just how far DC is willing to go to incentivize Dhaka to ensure they’re free and fair.
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Today, I announced a new visa policy to promote free and fair elections. Under this policy, we can impose visa restrictions on individuals and their immediate family members if they are responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh.
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These are tough but important questions, especially in the immediate term. Yes, Pakistani political parties have been dismantled before, but PTI is no MQM. It has national reach and mass appeal. Those are facts that can’t be denied or shrugged off as inconsequential.
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In that case, the issue would be what becomes of the party’s large support base. It won’t turn elsewhere. Khan’s imprisonment would galvanize it, but not necessarily into the long term & especially if no leaders are left to sustain the movement. Who/what would fill the vacuum?
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The walls continue to close in on PTI. Another top leader, Fawad Chaudhry, announces he’s leaving the party. More than two dozen PTI leaders have left. But ultimately the PTI is Imran Khan and Imran Khan is PTI. If he goes to jail, then that’s what could really do the party in.
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Shireen Mazari’s resignation from PTI is a big blow to the party. Other party leaders have resigned under pressure in recent days, but none as senior and visible as her.
The establishment continues to tighten the screws on the party on all levels.
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Army leaders are seeking to take the law into their own hands.
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This week, India hosts a G20 tourism summit in Kashmir. Last month, I argued in that New Delhi wants to signal that Indian-administered Kashmir is stable, peaceful, and ready to engage with the world-even though normalcy remains elusive.
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New Delhi wants to leverage its G20 presidency to serve as a bridge between developed & developing worlds, and that was on full display today: Modi, speaking at G7 summit, made a pitch for G7 to ease food & health insecurity-challenges that hit developing nations especially hard.
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Modi’s statement will also rekindle debate about Delhi’s potential role as a mediator. My position has been that it may have the capacity to play that role, but not the will.
At any rate, as we’ve already seen, Putin doesn’t listen to anyone, including friends like Modi.
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India’s Modi, speaking to Zelensky in Japan, said India will do whatever it can to bring a resolution to the war. This is in line with previous Indian statements re the need to end the war, and another reminder that India opposes the war even though it’s taken a muted position.
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Zelenskiy “is particularly keen to sit down with” Modi in Japan. Doubtful he hopes to get Modi to reduce India’s engagement w/Russia, as that wouldn’t succeed. He likely wants to press Modi to use his good relations with Russia to push Putin to deescalate.
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Several big days ahead for Indian foreign policy.
First, Modi attends the G7 and Quad summit in Japan. Then he'll be the first Indian PM to visit Papua New Guinea. He'll next be in Australia.
And next week, India hosts a G20 tourism meeting in Srinagar.
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On Bangladesh PM's criticism of the United States "She has harboured grievances against the US for sometime. Her view is that the US has backed and sided her main rivals. Going back to the war of independence, the US backed the Pakistani military"
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Bangladesh's PM tells me US sanctions against her country's paramilitary group is "some kind of game. We wanted evidence & they couldn't prove it. Look what's happening in America, almost every day, people are killing even school children. US should look into their own situation"
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New piece by Pakistan fellow on crisis in Pak. “What we’re witnessing is more of a conflict within the establishment itself, rather than a power struggle between the PTI, the army & other political parties.”
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#WorldDNA | #Pakistan's former PM #ImranKhan has claimed that the current government is working to ban his party, PTI.
The country's defence minister has denied plans to ban the party.
and talk to for perspective
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The Army's latest statement makes clear it's continuing to climb up the escalation ladder in its confrontation with Khan and the opposition. Vows to use military law to prosecute those behind and involved in the recent protests.
This could be quite a week.
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One reason Pakistan is on such a collision course is that the main confrontation pits a leader who claims to be Pakistan’s last hope and savior against the leader of an institution that claims to be Pakistan’s last hope and savior. This leaves precious little middle ground.
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The storm is producing winds of more than 100 mph and could lead to storm surges of 12 feet. Worst cyclone in several decades and one of worst ever to hit Bay of Bengal. The Bangladesh govt has the capacity to prepare; not sure about the Myanmar junta.
Hope all will be safe.
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A terrifying Category 5 cyclone is barreling toward Bangladesh & Myanmar. It’s expected to soon hit Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh, home to more than 1 million Rohingya refugees packed into a space of less than 7 square miles. Impacts could be devastating, even w/advance evacuations.
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Interesting thing is Pakistan did attend the EU Indo Pacific Forum (Hina Rabbani Khar was there) even though the Indian Ocean conference would seem to be a more logical geopolitical fit.
But, Pakistan may not have been invited-the Dhaka conf was organized by the India Foundation.
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Is anyone from Pakistan There ? Pakistan is missing at many regional and global platforms ? Why ? twitter.com/NHSMEDIA110/st…
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"Imran Khan has become the army’s Frankenstein monster", told in her well articulated piece "Why does Pakistan keep arresting its former prime ministers?" for The Sunday Times.
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There are 2 confrontations playing out in Pakistan-Khan and the state, and the Supreme Court and the state. But it's the nature of relations between the key people-Khan and the Army chief, and the Army chief and rest of senior army leadership, that could prove most consequential.
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An ambitious connectivity project aims to better link India to the Middle East. This, and more, in our latest South Asia Brief.
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I spoke to today about Imran Khan’s release, his political journey, and what could be next in Pakistan’s interminable political crisis. My interview starts at around the 19:30 point.
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The Internet ban led to more than $8M in lost revenue for Pakistan's telecom industry.
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Much of the criticism from political leaders in the West (including in US) re the crackdown in Pakistan this week has focused on the long Internet shutdown. Sounds like the Internet ban is finally in the process of being lifted.
Small silver lining from what's been a dark week.
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Pakistan’s Army is facing turmoil from within, and public anger directed at it from without. It has certainly confronted both challenges in the past, but with the current level of intensity and at the same time?
The crisis is entering highly unusual if not unprecedented terrain.
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#SmartTake: , Director of 's South Asia Institute, discusses the arrest of former #Pakistan PM Imran Khan, the impact of the Supreme Court’s recent order to release him, and what the state’s objectives are in keeping Mr. Khan behind bars.
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In #Pakistan, government and opposition leaders had begun talks shortly before 's arrest to try to reduce tensions. But now, of says, "The gloves are off on both sides."
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I'm quoted in this piece: "It's quite clear that the civil and military leadership much prefer that Khan not have an opportunity to return to power. That suggests that even though the state has been stymied by the Supreme Court, it's not going to give up."
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I’m quoted in this piece by on what the Pakistan government might do next after the Supreme Court ruled that Imran Khan’a arrest this week was unlawful and called for him to be released.
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Over the last few days, about half of the entire senior PTI leadership has been arrested. This is happening to what is likely Pakistan’s most popular political party.
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“the connectivity project shows just how much India benefits from the Abraham Accords, the Trump-era agreement that normalized relations between Israel and several of its Arab neighbors.” 1/2
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Last weekend the US, Indian, and UAE NSCs met with MBS in Riyadh to discuss an ambitious new connectivity initiative that Washington and New Delhi hope will enable them to push back on China’s influence in the Middle East. My latest
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The Supreme Court orders Khan’s immediate release.
What a blow for the Army.
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Pakistan’s Supreme Court has blazed an independent trail during the recent stages of the political crisis. It has pushed back on government plans to delay provincial elections, and now it has questioned the legality of Imran Khan’s arrest.
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My latest, from Washington:
"Day 2 of the Imran Khan Arrest | The American Connection"
With of the , about how the #PakistanArmy is being viewed from inside the Beltway
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"It's hard to imagine him happily ceding ground and giving in to the military...Accordingly, there’s a strong possibility that a Prime Minister Khan would spar with the military...Such a dynamic could usher in a fresh period of political volatility in Pakistan."
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