Michael KugelmanVerified account

@MichaelKugelman

Deputy director South Asia senior associate . Main focus Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, Bangladesh. Tweeting in a personal capacity.

Washington DC
wilsoncenter.org/person/michael…
Joined November 2011
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    6 Nov 2020

    I have a new piece for that takes a closer look at the (relatively few) differences between Trump and Biden on South Asia--with particular focus on approaching the Kashmir/human rights issue and on the pace of US troop withdrawals in Afghanistan.

    40 replies 40 retweets 229 likes
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  2. 6 hours ago

    The Taliban has denied reports that supreme leader Mullah Akhundzada died from an explosion in Quetta (his predecessor died in a drone strike in Balochistan). FWIW, unless I missed it, I don’t recall there being any statement or audio recording attributed to him in recent months.

    6 replies 5 retweets 60 likes
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  3. 8 hours ago

    A final note with Goal 2: Need to conduct a proper assessment of the true terrorism risk in Afghanistan following a full US withdrawal. I wonder if US overplays the "Afg returning to terror safe haven" angle. Does any group in Afg have the capacity to plan/mount an attack on US?

    4 replies 8 likes
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  4. 8 hours ago

    Best chances of achieving Goal 2 are: -Heavy diplomatic outreach to US rivals in region. Biden has indicated a desire to seek cooperation w/Tehran, Beijing where possible. But this will be tough. -Working out some type of arrangement w/Pakistan. Also tough, but maybe less tough.

    2 replies 4 likes
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  5. 8 hours ago

    If the US wants to achieve Goal 2, it'll need help (eg CT cooperation) from regional players-the problem is it doesn't get along w/Iran, Russia, China. This leaves Pakistan, which would have to be a big focus of US outreach to the region on this issue. But is Pakistan interested?

    2 replies 3 likes
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  6. 8 hours ago

    Goal 2: Prevent Afg from becoming terror haven and posing threat to US. Maintaining a CT capacity is easier when you have troops on ground-but that can't happen if US wants to achieve Goal 1. If US doesn't pull all troops by May 1, Taliban would likely tear up the Doha accord.

    1 reply 4 likes
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  7. 8 hours ago

    If US follows path of full withdrawal by May 1, it'll have to muster all the (limited) leverage it has w/Taliban-eg refuse to make any other concessions to Taliban featured in Doha deal until it reduces violence, refuse future aid to Taliban unless it gains power through talks.

    1 reply 4 likes
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  8. 8 hours ago

    But, if all US troops withdraw on May 1, the Taliban will have a major battlefield advantage (even more so if other NATO countries follow suit and withdraw). If it sees an opportunity to seize total power by force instead of acquiring partial power by talks, what would it choose?

    1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
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  9. 8 hours ago

    Goal 1: End the conflict-no more violence, stable Afg. govt. Any chance of this happening will require a full US withdrawal by the May 1 deadline AND a willingness on the part of Taliban at that point to reduce violence/agree to ceasefire/negotiate settlement w/the Afghan state.

    1 reply 2 likes
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  10. 8 hours ago

    "The administration has coalesced around two broad goals." (1) End the conflict-no more violence, stable Afghan govt. (2) Prevent Afg from becoming ISIS-like caliphate or where attacks can be planned against US. A thread with some thoughts on both goals.

    3 replies 5 retweets 26 likes
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  11. 8 hours ago

    "One US official familiar with the internal discussions went so far as to call Biden's choices a 's*** sandwich.'"

    4 replies 4 retweets 34 likes
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  12. 10 hours ago

    India has arrested Disha Ravi, a 21-year-old climate activist, for her role in sharing (and possibly editing) a toolkit that explains how people abroad can express solidarity with Indian farmer protestors. Let that sink in. (And yes, I’ve read through the toolkit document.)

    508 replies 3,079 retweets 9,444 likes
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  13. Feb 13

    I've worked with in the past and always found her to be such an inspirational figure-as a doctor, researcher, and more recently a public servant. A true and brilliant leader. All the best to her in this endeavor.

    Apart from selling/buying of senate seats, there is this one very positive news that is in the list of senate nominations. This woman is phenomenal & a true inspiration. We need more women leaders like her on the leading positions in govt.
    14 replies 202 retweets 1,537 likes
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  14. Feb 13

    I'll be returning virtually to my alma mater on Monday afternoon to participate in this discussion on the implications of the Indian farmers protests. The event is sponsored by and . More info here:

    12 replies 11 retweets 69 likes
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  15. Retweeted
    Feb 12

    Thread on some pieces on US policy towards Pakistan, issues that will be in focus in the Biden era: 1/n

    3 replies 56 retweets 193 likes
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  16. Retweeted
    Feb 12

    During a call with the Indian Prime Minister on Monday, Mr. Biden specifically pushed the idea that a first-of-its-kind “virtual head of state-level meeting” of the Quad … , , Felix Chang at FPRI and others weigh in …

    3 replies 26 retweets 51 likes
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  17. Feb 12

    "New paths for cooperation are still possible. The Biden administration’s emphasis on working ... to tackle global challenges such as climate change and public health will find favor in Pakistan. But the stain of the ruling won’t wash out anytime soon."

    18 replies 7 retweets 32 likes
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  18. Feb 12

    Reports of a large earthquake impacting India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia. I hope all are safe.

    19 replies 59 retweets 654 likes
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  19. Feb 12

    The latest edition of The AfPak File looks at the idea of an interim government in Afghanistan-is it at all viable? Would it advance a sputtering peace process? & I join the discussion, w/moderation from

    2 replies 7 retweets 22 likes
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  20. Retweeted
    Feb 11

    Why are there mass protests of farmers in India? What are some of the potential implications of these protests? addresses these questions and more! New ep -->

    2 replies 3 retweets 9 likes
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  21. Feb 11

    . and I discuss why the Afghan government has struggled to respond to the unrelenting target killing campaign playing out in Afghanistan. Replugging our debate, this time with a better link.

    4 replies 12 retweets 34 likes
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