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Michael D. Farren 🇺🇦
@MichaelDFarren
Economist and engineer. Senior Research Fellow . Blog at goo.gl/GPpXbW. Heinlein fan, TANSTAAFL. Views expressed are my own, unless they upset you.
Washington, DCmercatus.org/michael-farrenJoined May 2012

Michael D. Farren 🇺🇦’s Tweets

Last fall I nearly got caught by these airline shenanigans as well, but this case is especially egregious. Getting 47 minutes notice that your flight has been moved up by more than 2 hours is ridiculous. And moving a flight up by an ~1:15h is nearly as bad. WTH ?
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Thank you @delta for screwing up my day. Flight was supposed to leave at 11:30 AM. Late last night it was pushed back to 1:47 PM. When I woke up today I saw the delay and planned accordingly. At 10:43 AM, it was moved to 11:30 AM. Now it is scheduled for 12:30 PM.
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Absolutely fascinating thread.
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It is often said that the West is rich due to slavery and colonialism. But by 1500, long before the Atlantic slave trade and long before England or France have a single colony, Western Europe was far richer than the rest of the world. This divergence, however, began in 1300 AD. twitter.com/Scientific_Bir…
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I’ll give a quick personal example of this. When I took the SAT in 2004 in Shelby Co. AL, I went to a mid-level public school. As I walked into the room there was another student there with an Indian Springs sweatshirt on. Indian Springs was a hyper-wealthy boarding school. 1/6
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The utility of a standardized test is that it lets you compare across different schools in a system. twitter.com/anndaraabrams/…
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.@kearney_melissa recently pointed out to me that Social Security Administration's model for long-term health of the trust fund assumes US returns to roughly replacement-level fertility soon. But U.S. has been below replacement-level rates for a while wapo.st/40Jxiq7
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Yeah no. The biggest thing luring people back to Ohio is family - grandparents. Lean into making Ohio a great place to raise a family and then you’ve got yourself a decent economic development plan. dispatch.com/story/opinion/
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I explore this point in my new study: "Can We Predict the Jobs and Skills Needed for the AI Era?" rstreet.org/research/can-w There is indeed a very short memory about the many failed 'technological disruption' predictions of past decades. And yet the 'experts' are never held… Show more
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Decade from now AI will have had no detectable net employment impact. But those who predicted more won't admit error, as they will see AI boom still as just about to happen. Why do I see this as plausible? Because this is what happened over the last decade, & also the prior one.
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My convo with , just went live! I'm a big fan of her work. She provides great insights about what she calls the "conflict industrial complex", the features in our society that make us prone to high conflict: binary thinking, conflict entrepreneurs, etc. Check it out!
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@BenKlutsey and @amandaripley discuss how to have healthy, productive arguments in a polarized age. bit.ly/3m5YsrP
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You know there's a problem when sarcasm can't be distinguished from good advice.
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I’m sure a lot of people are intimidated by how competitive this profession is becoming and that a pre-doc is no longer sufficient to enter a top PhD program. But there’s a solution. A pre-pre doc that gives underprivileged students access to competitive predoc opportunities.
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Diff-in-diff is interesting because you start with *such* a simple implementation - OLS with an interaction term and a fairly grokkable parallel trends assumption. And it's great! Then you realize that breaking that basic case at *all* makes you have to change *everything*
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Given the abundance of job openings, especially in the tech sector, it doesn’t seem like the layoffs are as scary as first reported. Maybe they're not the recession harbinger after all--maybe it's just the normal response to the surge of talent acquisition during the pandemic.
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Furthermore, the number of job openings (11M) remains near its record high—that’s almost double the number of workers who are officially unemployed. In fact, it’s enough to satisfy every person who says they want a job, regardless of whether they’re actively searching or not.
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But the January jobs report from the BLS offers a rosier view: •Payroll employment rose by 517K •Unemployment remained at 3.4%, near a historic low point •Updates to last year’s data showed almost 600K more jobs in the economy than we previously understood
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