My thought then, as it is now, was that this was a justification for continuing to focus Canada on a single market (the US refineries), to the benefit of the major players in the industry rather than to the benefit of Canada and Alberta. /2
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Two major factors coincided to undermine the value of Canadian production to the US market: the application of fracking to access so-called "shale oil beds", and the discovery of massive shale reserves in the Permian Basin. /3
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The massive shale finds are relatively recent - an article on CNN dates to 2016, and I think I started hearing about shale oil exploitation somewhere around 2010 (development would have started 10 years before that, but experimental) /4
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Nonetheless, this means that industry in Canada should have been aware of shale development should have been aware of this in the early 2000s. /5
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Charitably, we've had 15 years to figure out that the US wasn't going to be our "good buddy customer" for all the raw crude we could produce. /6
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Yet, as recently as 2012, we were still being told to "just ship it south to the US refineries which have already made the investments to process bitumen" /7https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/05/23/canada-oil-refineries_n_1539701.html …
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This is important, because it points out the problem that having a government which is captive to the industry (as Klein allowed Alberta to become): Industry looks out for its own interests, not the interests of the state it operates in, or the people who work there. /8
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Necessarily, that relationship will be adversarial to some extent. The interests of the state and those of any industry are at odds from time to time. /9
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Alberta (and Canada) needed to start investing in both upgrading/refining and tidewater pipelines 20 years ago. Instead, a series of captive governments chose to go along with the line that industry was spouting because it was easy. /10
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Fast forward to 2015, American shale production ramps up, flooding the commodity market with a (relatively - compared to bitumen) easily processed crude source, and the bottom falls out of the market as a result. /11
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Add to that the consequences of Harper's fiddling with the regulatory processes around approval in 2012, which were just becoming clear as various stakeholders sued the government over project approvals. /12
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Harper wanted to make it easier for these projects, so he narrowed the scope of consultation considerably, a change which enraged people who might otherwise have been amenable to persuasion. /13
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and presto, we have most of the projects that were on the table either stillborn (NG, EE), or tied up in the courts (TMX, KXL - although KXL is tangled up in US litigation). /14
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None of this can legitimately be placed at the feet of
@RachelNotley, whose government inherited the legacy of politicians willing to be captive to the whims of an industry which only benefits Alberta when it suits them. /15Show this thread -
It's frustrating as hell to see one of Canada's most lucrative industries caught in a legal and ethical stalemate. Untangling this is a matter of time and statecraft. /16
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Patience and wisdom are needed far more than anger, rage and foot-stamping. That will get us nowhere. Going forward, we need governments who are willing to work with industry, but at the same time ensure that the best interests of Alberta and Canada are represented too. /17
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Lots of blame to go around now’s the time to fix the problems.
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There isn't a "quick fix" - the problems are systemic and will take years to unravel and correct.
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Absolutely, but completely lost on Ab industry and politic rightish commentators, and yellow vest / truck convoy protestors who seek completely impossible instant solutions.
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Instant solutions is like "instant food" to me - chances are it's not going to be particularly satisfying.
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Meanwhile Ottawa has promised $20B to help and AB whines just like they blame ON and Quebec of doing, living off the Ottawa dole.
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