I almost tweeted this last night, but @sama putting AI on a list of failed predictions seems not-even-wrong to me. http://blog.samaltman.com/technology-predictions …
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So treating anti-Scary-AI positions as equivalent to denying heavier-than-air flight is a category error. You can't negate an ill-posed idea
@vgr Lots of ways to cash out "superhuman AI is impossible" to real predictions, e.g. rate of science/tech research performed by future AIs.
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@vgr The real problem with Altman's list is predictions have sometimes been too optimistic and sometimes been too pessimistic. -
@vgr Doomsday cults not the right reference class; superhuman AI has plausible mechanisms by which it could happen in a natural universe.
End of conversation
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