@St_Rev @Meaningness @asilentsky Not taking the bootstrap apocalypse seriously and being wrong means you die.
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@MemberOfSpecies The problem is more that U and P are both so uncertain that UxP could be anything; was subject of y aborted LW sequence.
@Meaningness The P is very hard to give precisely justified estimates for, but it can be constrained somewhat with informal arguments.
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@MemberOfSpecies There’s a related issue (not sure if we want to discuss this further) that there’s no obvious place to start work. -
@MemberOfSpecies Same problem with AI itself. Its not that incremental progress is slow, it’s that all starting points look blocked.
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@Meaningness Maybe action in advance of AI progress is only 10% as effective, and, say, $100M buys you 0.05% instead of 0.5% risk reduction. -
@Meaningness Saying, "yes, this argument decreases how much success we should anticipate, but the payoff is huge" seems reasonable here. - 6 more replies
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