IPCC doesn't state a best estimate for ECS but it looks like their projections are based on models with mean ECS 3.22K.
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finding that is being fed to the media.
Also, almost 40% of those polled think ECS < 2.5K. Many of these people would probably count as skeptics for practical purposes?
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In that net warming damage is supposed to increase more-than-linearly with temperature rise, and maybe dip below zero for low values.
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It would be interesting to see how sensitivity estimates break down by field of expertise, or in subsets of people with more publications.
End of conversation
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