IPCC doesn't state a best estimate for ECS but it looks like their projections are based on models with mean ECS 3.22K.
-
(To be fair, many would say it's only very slightly too high.)
I'm not very confident that my interpretation here is correct, but if it is, that seems a more interesting takeaway than the "false balance"
-
-
finding that is being fed to the media.
-
Also, almost 40% of those polled think ECS < 2.5K. Many of these people would probably count as skeptics for practical purposes?
-
In that net warming damage is supposed to increase more-than-linearly with temperature rise, and maybe dip below zero for low values.
-
It would be interesting to see how sensitivity estimates break down by field of expertise, or in subsets of people with more publications.
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.