This distinction doesn't seem to track common usage: https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=I+think+they+will+win%2CI+believe+they+will+win&year_start=1800&year_end=2000&corpus=15&smoothing=3&share=&direct_url=t1%3B%2CI%20think%20they%20will%20win%3B%2Cc0%3B.t1%3B%2CI%20believe%20they%20will%20win%3B%2Cc0 …
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Replying to @thedrakesays
That’s interesting… those data are really odd, though. I agree it’s an empirical question that needs better support than “seems to me”, which is all I’ve got atm
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Replying to @Meaningness
I guess I don’t understand why you find them odd. My intuition is that the terms are roughly coextensive, with “believe“ possibly connoting a higher degree of confidence. (FWIW.)
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Replying to @thedrakesays
I need to do some empirical work on this; my anecdotal understanding may be mistaken.
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Replying to @Meaningness
"believe"' implies greater emotional investment, such as ideological commitment (seems heavily influenced by the Christian tradition). It suggests "ought" more than "is". But you can cue this much more strongly by other word choices like "will" vs "should".
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Replying to @robamacl @Meaningness
I would not say "believe" implies greater certainty, if anything the anxiety in it suggests the plausibility of doubt. Perhaps my atheism is showing.
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Replying to @robamacl @Meaningness
I think something like philosophical belief is an important thing, but is largely unconscious. V.S. Ramachandan on paralysis with neglect was thought provoking. http://humancond.org/books/phantoms_in_brain …
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Replying to @robamacl @Meaningness
After a stroke caused paralysis, patient sometimes denies they are paralyzed, and confabulates. "I just don't feel like moving", etc. But if you squirt ice water in their ear, they admit paralysis, and deny that they had ever denied. Then, after a while the ice effect is gone.
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Replying to @robamacl
That’s… really odd! Is there some sort of explanation for it?
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Replying to @Meaningness @robamacl
I've come across a couple of "ice water in ear" studies and stories, most of which do seem odd but not pseudoscientific, e.g. this one http://precedings.nature.com/documents/4519/version/1/files/npre20104519-1.pdf …
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Very odd. Random weirdness: Is water at 24C (the temperature used in the study) “cold”? That’s 75F. Luke-warm, I’d say.
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it's basically room temperature (where I live), but squirted water does feel colder than it is, I think
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