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This distinction doesn't seem to track common usage: https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=I+think+they+will+win%2CI+believe+they+will+win&year_start=1800&year_end=2000&corpus=15&smoothing=3&share=&direct_url=t1%3B%2CI%20think%20they%20will%20win%3B%2Cc0%3B.t1%3B%2CI%20believe%20they%20will%20win%3B%2Cc0 …
That’s interesting… those data are really odd, though. I agree it’s an empirical question that needs better support than “seems to me”, which is all I’ve got atm
I guess I don’t understand why you find them odd. My intuition is that the terms are roughly coextensive, with “believe“ possibly connoting a higher degree of confidence. (FWIW.)
I need to do some empirical work on this; my anecdotal understanding may be mistaken.
"believe"' implies greater emotional investment, such as ideological commitment (seems heavily influenced by the Christian tradition). It suggests "ought" more than "is". But you can cue this much more strongly by other word choices like "will" vs "should".
I would not say "believe" implies greater certainty, if anything the anxiety in it suggests the plausibility of doubt. Perhaps my atheism is showing.
I think something like philosophical belief is an important thing, but is largely unconscious. V.S. Ramachandan on paralysis with neglect was thought provoking. http://humancond.org/books/phantoms_in_brain …
After a stroke caused paralysis, patient sometimes denies they are paralyzed, and confabulates. "I just don't feel like moving", etc. But if you squirt ice water in their ear, they admit paralysis, and deny that they had ever denied. Then, after a while the ice effect is gone.
That’s… really odd! Is there some sort of explanation for it?
Confabulation is a major thing. As my mother’s dementia progresses, she fills in more and more cognitive gaps with plausible-sounding but completely false stories. Once I observed this, I started to worry, and observe… and caught myself doing the same thing. Like, *often*.
I gave my wife a lengthy explanation of why I had bought a particular bottle of wine that was atypical for me. And realized only later that, in fact, she had bought it, not me. I completely believed what I was saying.
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