Only if you make a bunch of sampling assumptions, which are not realistic in general. This explanation is not great, but it’s a start: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raven_paradox#Role_of_background_knowledge …
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Replying to @Meaningness
ok but if there are very few non-black things and tons and tons of ravens, shouldn't we actually bite the bullet?
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Replying to @admittedlyhuman
If you somehow know ahead of time how many things there are, and how many of them are likely to be black and/or ravens, then this sort of argument can work. But most scientific induction cases are not like that.
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Replying to @Meaningness
well why not state the paradox about something that we don't have a pretty good sense that non-black things outnumber ravens?
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Replying to @admittedlyhuman
Another problem is that, by the same argument, seeing a purple eggplant is evidence that all ravens are green. (Right? I’ve had a long day, maybe I’m not doing this correctly.)
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Replying to @Meaningness @admittedlyhuman
This seems true. Just, y'know, weak evidence.
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Replying to @GrumplessGrinch @admittedlyhuman
My prior is that approximately measure zero of working scientists would accept this.
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Replying to @Meaningness @GrumplessGrinch
working scientists are not epistemic philosophers
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Replying to @admittedlyhuman @GrumplessGrinch
Right. On the other hand, most professional epistemologists also think purple eggplants being evidence for green ravens is ridiculous.
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Replying to @Meaningness @admittedlyhuman
Oh, well, if it's *ridiculous* it can't possibly be true.
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Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence… if both philosophers and scientists reject it, it could still be right, but you’d need very strong evidence indeed
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Replying to @Meaningness @GrumplessGrinch
are you seriously appealing to the authority of the philosophical mainstream, lol
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