The scientific induction starter pack.pic.twitter.com/N1Hm1W3tpq
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The scientific induction starter pack.pic.twitter.com/N1Hm1W3tpq
The Raven Paradox: under most theories of scientific induction, observing a purple eggplant (a non-black non-raven) is evidence that all ravens are black. Most/all attempted solutions depend on random object sampling, which seems impossible. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raven_paradox …pic.twitter.com/p5waFK5VHg
I know you hate bayesianism but doesn't it solve this particular problem quite cleanly?
Only if you make a bunch of sampling assumptions, which are not realistic in general. This explanation is not great, but it’s a start: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raven_paradox#Role_of_background_knowledge …
ok but if there are very few non-black things and tons and tons of ravens, shouldn't we actually bite the bullet?
If you somehow know ahead of time how many things there are, and how many of them are likely to be black and/or ravens, then this sort of argument can work. But most scientific induction cases are not like that.
well why not state the paradox about something that we don't have a pretty good sense that non-black things outnumber ravens?
but I don't believe that the paradox remains once you fix the problem, so restating it to remove that problem might convince me
the paradox can be explained wrt ravens; if you think something else needs explanation state that something else
A general theory of induction ought to work when we don’t have strong priors.
is that, like, true? there's gotta be a no-free-lunch in there somewhere.
Well a standard Bayesian story is that, yes, your priors don’t matter, because they wash out with sufficient evidence.
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