Probabilities have to sum to 1, but hypotheses are infinite, and you can consider only a handful. In AI, this “truncation” of possible factors was often called “a closed-world assumption.” In philosophy, it’s referred to as “ceteris paribus conditions” or “the background.”
Yes; one can understand much of the replication crisis as people failing to recognize this. (I have no dog in the frequentist vs Bayesian fight)
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but your critique sounds like a frequentist critique of Bayesianism, not "probability theory".
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Not sure I’m following you. Frequentism also involves a finite set of hypotheses and unbounded ceteris paribus assumptions.
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