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i've written about that as well: http://nostalgebraist.tumblr.com/post/160975105374/on-miris-logical-induction-paper …
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All formal methods share this limitation, but Bayesianism is the E. coli of rationalism: so simple that it makes the failure mode obvious.
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Only in fantasy-land. It’s the most unknowable thing there is, by definition. It can’t be approximated.
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“Can’t be approximated” is one of the main themes in Chaitin’s work, which is worth reading if you are interested in the area!
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Gelman/Shalizi deal, I think, with this issue here, saying that a more sophisticated, model-conscious Bayesianism is tenable in spite of it.
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Bayesian methods, like other formal methods of rationality, can work extremely well in restricted cases when applied intelligently.
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Yes, this is a classic example of a “wrong-way reduction”: https://meaningness.com/wrong-way-reduction …
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The issue is with formalism per se. It is always relative to a vocabulary, and doesn’t explain where you get one:https://meaningness.com/metablog/bongard-meta-rationality …
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