General point is, no one seems to be able to make meaningful predictions. So,
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Replying to @Meaningness
is there some other value to the models besides that? Maybe some qualitative intuitions…
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Replying to @Meaningness
E.g. sure seems if you print ENOUGH money, you will get price inflation (despite apparent failure of QE).
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Replying to @Meaningness
But no one can say to an order of magnitude how much “enough” is; no one predicted QE+disinflation,
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Replying to @Meaningness
re QE: here you would want to think about the counterfactual: probably, without QE inflation would have been even lower.
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Replying to @alexeyguzey
Well, that “makes sense,” but is it true? I don’t know! I would guess probably yes, but some people now say the opposite.
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Replying to @Meaningness
Random examples from quick googling: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/18/st-louis-fed-official-no-evidence-qe-boosted-economy.html …
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Replying to @Meaningness
Here’s a version based on mainstream macro models, endorsed by mainstream macro guys: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2014-11-04/reality-might-topple-a-beloved-economic-theory …
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Replying to @Meaningness
“The Neo-Fisherites wonder if low interest rates, which we usually think of as being inflationary, are actually deflationary!”
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Replying to @Meaningness
I am not endorsing this view, but pointing out that there’s apparently no way of knowing whether it’s right or wrong.
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And if macro can’t sort *that* out, then … what good is it?
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