The time series of the Fed dot plot shows their macro model can’t even approx predict a variable they have full control over.
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Replying to @Meaningness
Wait, but dot plot isn't based on any model. It's just committee members' cheap talk. We don't see the predictions of their internal models.
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Replying to @alexeyguzey @Meaningness
But also, it doesn't make sense to predict a variable you have a control over. Dot plot is about what they *feel* the fed funds should be.
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Replying to @alexeyguzey
I suppose these series would be the ones to evaluate? Had that been done?
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Replying to @Meaningness
whoops, this tweet was meant to point to https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20161214.pdf …
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Replying to @Meaningness
don't know about these specific forecasts, tbh
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Replying to @alexeyguzey @Meaningness
this graph would support your point better :)pic.twitter.com/BsUoy2IEvm
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Replying to @alexeyguzey
Right… I think I’ve seen similar plots from the Fed, but could be wrong.
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Replying to @Meaningness
General point is, no one seems to be able to make meaningful predictions. So,
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I don’t understand the statistical methodology here. Looks dubious to me, but am not an econometrician/statistician.
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Replying to @Meaningness
oh, I believe they just ranked personal statements on accuracy; no models here.
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