But also, it doesn't make sense to predict a variable you have a control over. Dot plot is about what they *feel* the fed funds should be.
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Replying to @alexeyguzey
I suppose these series would be the ones to evaluate? Had that been done?
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Replying to @Meaningness
whoops, this tweet was meant to point to https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20161214.pdf …
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Replying to @Meaningness
don't know about these specific forecasts, tbh
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Replying to @alexeyguzey @Meaningness
this graph would support your point better :)pic.twitter.com/BsUoy2IEvm
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Replying to @alexeyguzey
Right… I think I’ve seen similar plots from the Fed, but could be wrong.
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Replying to @Meaningness
General point is, no one seems to be able to make meaningful predictions. So,
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Replying to @Meaningness
is there some other value to the models besides that? Maybe some qualitative intuitions…
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Replying to @Meaningness
E.g. sure seems if you print ENOUGH money, you will get price inflation (despite apparent failure of QE).
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Replying to @Meaningness
But no one can say to an order of magnitude how much “enough” is; no one predicted QE+disinflation,
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and no one has a persuasive explanation of that. (It’s easy to make vaguely plausible sounding ones, but which is right?)
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Replying to @Meaningness
I think you're generally correct re uselessness of macro models.
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