Wait, but dot plot isn't based on any model. It's just committee members' cheap talk. We don't see the predictions of their internal models.
But no one can say to an order of magnitude how much “enough” is; no one predicted QE+disinflation,
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re QE: here you would want to think about the counterfactual: probably, without QE inflation would have been even lower.
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Well, that “makes sense,” but is it true? I don’t know! I would guess probably yes, but some people now say the opposite.
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and no one has a persuasive explanation of that. (It’s easy to make vaguely plausible sounding ones, but which is right?)
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I think you're generally correct re uselessness of macro models.
End of conversation
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