The time series of the Fed dot plot shows their macro model can’t even approx predict a variable they have full control over.
E.g. sure seems if you print ENOUGH money, you will get price inflation (despite apparent failure of QE).
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But no one can say to an order of magnitude how much “enough” is; no one predicted QE+disinflation,
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re QE: here you would want to think about the counterfactual: probably, without QE inflation would have been even lower.
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