Is it the post by @Noahpinion that you like, or the one by Reis? I’ve read the former…
-
-
Replying to @Meaningness
Seems to sum to: “Many of our practices each independently guaranteed that what we did had no empirical value;
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @Meaningness
now we are doing some of those differently.” No argument—or even suggestion!—that resulting discipline has any empirical value.
2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @Meaningness
what do you mean by empirical value? Structural models, for example, inform real policy decisions
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @alexeyguzey
The time series of the Fed dot plot shows their macro model can’t even approx predict a variable they have full control over.
2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @Meaningness
Wait, but dot plot isn't based on any model. It's just committee members' cheap talk. We don't see the predictions of their internal models.
2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @alexeyguzey @Meaningness
But also, it doesn't make sense to predict a variable you have a control over. Dot plot is about what they *feel* the fed funds should be.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @alexeyguzey
I suppose these series would be the ones to evaluate? Had that been done?
2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @Meaningness
whoops, this tweet was meant to point to https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20161214.pdf …
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @Meaningness
don't know about these specific forecasts, tbh
2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.