Macroeconomics is a pseudoscience, like astrology. It’s time for everyone to start pointing and jeering.https://twitter.com/hbdchick/status/845776954594938880 …
The time series of the Fed dot plot shows their macro model can’t even approx predict a variable they have full control over.
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Wait, but dot plot isn't based on any model. It's just committee members' cheap talk. We don't see the predictions of their internal models.
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But also, it doesn't make sense to predict a variable you have a control over. Dot plot is about what they *feel* the fed funds should be.
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So undoubtedly they *use* macro models, but the evidence is their model is worthless (even to them).
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