@Meaningness @simplic10 hm. sounds like what happened is a bunch of ppl suddenly grasped the concept of defeasible reasoning all at once >
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Replying to @schakalsynthetc
@Meaningness@simplic10 < & rightly got excited about it but got the wrong notion that d.r. equals "computing Bayesian expectations"1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @schakalsynthetc
@schakalsynthetc “Defeasible reasoning” is way beyond where they were at.1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @Meaningness
@schakalsynthetc One self-educated kid, Eliezer Yudkowski, read a deeply confused, messianic book about Bayes (by E. T. Jaynes) >1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @Meaningness
@schakalsynthetc > and started a sort of cult. He was not the first to do this; that book has been inspiring confused cults for 30 years.2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @Meaningness
@Meaningness hadn't even heard of Jaynes until now tbh2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @schakalsynthetc
@Meaningness istr there was sth called Bayesianism floating around academic epistemology awhile back but it seemed way more modest, less bs2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @schakalsynthetc
@schakalsynthetc it’s actually a useful branch of statistical theory. It’s fine as that, but has features that make people want it to be1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @Meaningness
@schakalsynthetc The Final Answer To All Problems1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @Meaningness
@Meaningness I've noticed even ppl who aren't full-on silly with it have trouble grasping that expectation isn't the same as *frequency*1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
@schakalsynthetc tbf, that’s one thing LessWrong was very clear on
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