Of course, I cannot resist mocking Bayesianism. But exactly this argument is importantly correct in other cases.pic.twitter.com/A1ZxLYpYjl
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Of course, I cannot resist mocking Bayesianism. But exactly this argument is importantly correct in other cases.pic.twitter.com/A1ZxLYpYjl
@Meaningness @simplic10 exactly how would one go about calculating the probability that Hesperus is Phosphorous?
@schakalsynthetc @simplic10 God’s sakes, man, it’s just division, and it’s advertised on neon signs everywherepic.twitter.com/LNHUvRNAkF
@Meaningness @schakalsynthetc @simplic10 I don't think the mathematical construct is any more useful than Goodman's Grue, but...
@Meaningness @schakalsynthetc @simplic10 .. I'm not sure why the observation is wrong. Especially in history, there's lotta places for error
@gattsuru @schakalsynthetc @simplic10 Some things are sufficiently certain that putting them in a probabilistic framework is dumb.
@Meaningness @gattsuru @schakalsynthetc agree w overall point of tweetstorm but... are we really so certain about veracity of history?
@simplic10 @gattsuru @schakalsynthetc In general, not! I’ve written extensively about the fact that nearly all of Buddhist history is false.
@simplic10 @gattsuru @schakalsynthetc I don’t think there’s any reasonable doubt about Washington. But there’s no specific method for that!
@Meaningness @gattsuru @schakalsynthetc I suppose if you're doing radical skepticism there's no point discussing specifics of history
@Meaningness @gattsuru @schakalsynthetc which is why that arg seems silly as applied
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