@MemberOfSpecies If that *was* clear, I’m not sure how what I attributed to singularitarianism differs from the actual argument.
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Replying to @Meaningness
@Meaningness The difference is in the ε, which I take to refer only to probabilities so small they make max-EU heuristics problematic.2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @MemberOfSpecies
@MemberOfSpecies The problem is more that U and P are both so uncertain that UxP could be anything; was subject of y aborted LW sequence.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @Meaningness
@Meaningness The P is very hard to give precisely justified estimates for, but it can be constrained somewhat with informal arguments.2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @MemberOfSpecies
@Meaningness Maybe action in advance of AI progress is only 10% as effective, and, say, $100M buys you 0.05% instead of 0.5% risk reduction.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @MemberOfSpecies
@Meaningness Saying, "yes, this argument decreases how much success we should anticipate, but the payoff is huge" seems reasonable here.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @MemberOfSpecies
@MemberOfSpecies Agreed. But then, the question is, can you do anything with $10M *at all*, in absence of plausible starting points?1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @Meaningness
@MemberOfSpecies It’s not my money, so anyone is welcome to bet… But I’d diagnose “staff spends time writing fan fiction” as “no starting pt1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @Meaningness
@Meaningness One of the staff spends time writing a particular fan fiction that turned out popular enough to be useful movement-building.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @MemberOfSpecies
@Meaningness That's a strategy I could expect to see whether or not there were plausible starting points.2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
@MemberOfSpecies Yes, maybe; I’ve adopted a similar strategy! (B4V) I have no axe to grind here.
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Replying to @Meaningness
@MemberOfSpecies I was just curious about why@slatestarcodex’s piece seemed uncharacteristically weak, and that led to a one-liner, and.0 replies 0 retweets 0 likesThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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