@A_P_Mason @Meaningness @asilentsky Not taking God seriously and being wrong means going to Hell. Pascal's wager in cyberpunk drag.
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Replying to @Meaningness
@Meaningness @A_P_Mason @asilentsky For what it's worth, Yudkowsky has disclaimed ∞×ε type arguments in his exchanges with Holden Karnofsky.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @MemberOfSpecies
@Meaningness @A_P_Mason @asilentsky Maybe one can argue singularitarianism requires ∞×ε arguments, but it's not the line that's being taken.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @MemberOfSpecies
@Meaningness @A_P_Mason @asilentsky Rather, it's supposed to be U×P with U a huge number and P maybe smallish but not super small.1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @MemberOfSpecies
@MemberOfSpecies Hmm, not sure it was clear I was using “∞” as shorthand for “very large, unspecified, finite number.”1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @Meaningness
@MemberOfSpecies If that *was* clear, I’m not sure how what I attributed to singularitarianism differs from the actual argument.2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @Meaningness
@Meaningness The difference is in the ε, which I take to refer only to probabilities so small they make max-EU heuristics problematic.2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @MemberOfSpecies
@MemberOfSpecies The problem is more that U and P are both so uncertain that UxP could be anything; was subject of y aborted LW sequence.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @Meaningness
@Meaningness The P is very hard to give precisely justified estimates for, but it can be constrained somewhat with informal arguments.2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
@MemberOfSpecies There’s a related issue (not sure if we want to discuss this further) that there’s no obvious place to start work.
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Replying to @Meaningness
@MemberOfSpecies Same problem with AI itself. Its not that incremental progress is slow, it’s that all starting points look blocked.0 replies 0 retweets 0 likesThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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