@Meaningness @themattsimpson ...have a bad habit of suddenly diverging exponentially.
@themattsimpson @St_Rev Thanks! Yes, on first glance, similar to Taleb’s arguments. Random boast: I was massively short mortgages in 2007.
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@St_Rev @themattsimpson And fat tails generally. Probability theory is actively harmful when it leads you to undue meta-confidence. - 2 more replies
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@Meaningness @themattsimpson The uncertainty taxonomy in http://web.mit.edu/alo/www/Papers/physics8.pdf … looks really good, I need to read that paper carefully.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@Meaningness @themattsimpson Something in the back of my mind when thinking about these issues is behavior of dynamical system near...Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@Meaningness @themattsimpson ...a hyperbolic fixed point. v. roughly: when modeling systems, be aware that apparently stable parameters...Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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