This really looks like false positives plus sampling bias.https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1251193282006310915 …
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Ioannidis is a coauthor on this! Very disappointing.
Yeah he published a paper about three weeks ago saying “this thing has been massively overblown” which… lots of clueful people had trouble with. It’s possible he’s got confirmation bias going on here, despite generally being about the best person in the field.
does make you wonder how we ever know things about unimportant topics that don't have the attention of the entire world
I have thought about writing a rant along the lines of “science is this bad, or worse, all the time; you just don’t notice because it usually doesn’t seem to matter” (Gell-Mann amnesia analog) Among other considerations, I’m not sure to what extent that’s true, though
So far, they've at least rhymed. I'm reasonably certain that my WAG's are within a factor of 3 in some direction, not a factor of 100. /We still don't understand the death count of the Spanish Flu, much less IFR's.
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