Recipes say "bake 45 minutes or until firm" because there are two kinds of people. Those that want a good cake and know that it requires some personal judgment do the latter. But some people just want to say they followed procedure, eat an underbaked cake, and work for the FDA.
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Is that what the whole thing with "Bayesian zealots" was about? The idea that Rationalists would follow "just apply Bayes' Law to calculate the posterior" for everything like the 45-minute baker instead of developing judgment and common sense?
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“Developing judgement and common sense” corresponds to what I call “merely-reasonable circumrational work, which is necessary to make rationality function.” That is not meta-rationality, though; it’s part of the meta-rational understanding of how rationality itself works.
End of conversation
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Food is fertile ground for these analogies. My dad is continuing my late Grandfather’s wine-making hobby. he talks to me about the process of discovery without my Grandfather there. It’s uncanny. He found a 40yr old journal with all whacky experiments in it the other day.
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