When gambling, think about what's probable. When hedging, think about what's plausible. When preparing, think about what's possible.
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gambling -> maximum likelihood hedging -> minimax prepping -> common sense Don't use the wrong tool for the problem.
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Friends, early draft on Naive Probabilism and coronavirus. Thoughts and suggestions, please.pic.twitter.com/d5C6hiOxXx
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Posted to ResearchersOne Easier to read and available for comments. Please post suggestions there. Thanks.https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-03-9 …
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For more technical stuff (but not too technical) on how to better understand data from complex systems. https://www.amazon.com/Probabilistic-Foundations-Statistical-Monographs-Probability/dp/1138630152/ … Current situation shows how very far behind we are.
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Harry Crane Retweeted Harry Crane
The practical scope of naive probabilism is limited to the domain that we are already intuitively good at. Best case, the formalism adds no value. Worst case, it adds negative value.https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1238499013315493889 …
Harry Crane added,
Harry Crane @HarryDCraneOnly fools and idiots need to "prepare" for what's probable. We already expect certain things to happen. We're automatically prepared for those cases. Status quo. We need to prepare for what's improbable, yet possible. https://twitter.com/OlliTiainen/status/1238498230381527044 …2 replies 5 retweets 28 likesShow this thread -
I look forward to reading!
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